3,400 research outputs found

    Real Wages and the Terms of Trade: Alternative Indexation Rules for an Open Economy

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    This paper examines the desirability of wage indexation in an open economy subject to economic disturbances which change the terms of trade and raise the prices of imported goods. Two indexation rules are considered, the traditional form of indexation to the consumer price index and indexation to the price of domestic goods alone, the latter proposed as a means of limiting the influence of import prices on the economy. The effects of the rules are shown to depend upon how the terms of trade rather than import prices alone respond to disturbances, since changes in the terms of trade determine what adjustments are required in the two real wages faced by firms and labor.

    Real Exchange Rates and Productivity Growth in the United States and Japan

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    Real exchange rates between the yen and dollar based on general price indexes overestimate the competitiveness of the United States relative to Japan. High productivity growth in the traded sector of the Japanese economy results in a continuous fall in the prices of traded goods relative to nontraded goods in Japan. In order to keep U.S. traded goods competitive, the real exchange rate based on general price series like the GDP deflator or the CPI index must continually fall resulting in a real appreciation of the yen.This paper provides estimates of how far real exchange rates based on general price series would have had to fall over the 1973-83 period in order to keep U.S. traded goods competitive. The real exchange rate based on GDP deflators, for example, would have had to fall by 38% relative to the real exchange rate based on unit labor costs in the traded sector. The GDP series remained roughly constant over the period, thus giving the misleading impression that U.S. goods were still competitive despite a sharp rise in the relative price of U.S. traded goods. The paper also provides estimates of the relative wage changes which would have to occur to restore the competitiveness of U.S. traded goods.

    Price Behavior in Japanese and U.S. Manufacturing

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    Relative price changes in Japanese and U.S. manufacturing are driven by two forces, productiviry growth which leads to secular changes in costs and exchange rate fluctuations which change relative prices between the two countries. In sectors where productivity growth is high, reductions in costs can neutralize exchange rate appreciations to keep prices competitive with those abroad, at least in the long run, But even in these sectors, exchange rate fluctuations are the dominant influence on relative competitiveness in the short run. Faced with swings in exchange rates, firms adopt defensive measures to defend their export markets. The paper presents estimates of "pricing to market" elasticities which suggest that firms lower their export prices in domestic currency relative to their domestic prices in order to limit the effects of currency appreciations. There is evidence that firms in both countries pursue such pricing strategies, but pricing to market is more extensive in Japan. In response to a appreciation of the yen, Japanese firms reduce their export prices in yen sharply so as to limit the pass-through of the appreciation into the dollar prices of their exports.

    Real and Monetary Disturbances in an Exchange-Rate Union

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    This paper investigates how a small country fares in an exchange-rate union if that country is subject to real and monetary disturbances originating at home and abroad. By joining a union, the country can fix the exchange rate between its currency and the currency of another country or countries. The paper asks whether or not fixing this exchange rate helps to modify the effects of disturbances on the domestic economy. This question is investigated within a model consisting of an aggregate demand equation dependent upon the terms of trade, an aggregate supply equation in which labor supply is responsive to the general price level, and a financial equation that determines the exchange rate of the domestic currency relative to one of two foreign currencies (the other being determined by triangular arbitrage) . Aggregate supply behavior varies depending upon whether wages respond to prices with a lag or are indexed to current changes in the general price level. Because the small country model cannot be used by itself to analyze the effects of foreign disturbances, the paper introduces models of two foreign countries with the same analytical structure as the domestic country model. Foreign disturbances are studied in two stages, first within the foreign model, then within the domestic model. The analysis shows that one of the most important factors determining the effects of the union is the degree of wage indexation in the domestic economy. The greater the degree of indexation, the less difference there is between output variation in the union and in a flexible regime. Apart from wage behavior, two other factors are important: the sources of the disturbances and the pattern of trade. Contrary to common belief, the case for a union is not necessarily strengthened if disturbances primarily originate outside the union and if the domestic country trades primarily with other members of the union.

    Wages, Relative Prices, and the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates

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    This paper reexamines the choice between fixed and flexible rates to take into account wage indexation and flexible prices. The model employed is of a small open economy faced by monetary and aggregate demand disturbances originating at ham and abroad. Aggregate supply behavior in this &el varies depending upon whether wages are set in one-period labor contracts or are indexed to current changes in the general price level, Two central conclusions emerge from the analysis. First, for all disturbances the difference in output variation between fixed and flexible rates is dependent upon the degree of wage indexation, being proportional to one minus the degree of wage indexation in the domestic economy. Thus the more highly indexed the economy, the less difference the choice of exchange rate regime makes to output variation, Secondly, the effect of foreign disturbances on the domestic economy depends as much on foreign wage and price behavior as domestic. If the rest of the world is fully indexed, flexible rates insulate the domestic country completely from foreign monetary disturbances, If the rest of the world is more highly indexed than the domestic country, then for high price elasticities at least, a flexible rate dampens the output variation associated with foreign demand disturbances.
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